Publications
Sur cet page, vous pourrez trouver des versions téléchargeables de communications
présentées dans divers congrès scientifiques, d'articles ou de chapitres
de livres déjà publiés ou en attente de publication, de même que des articles
courts écrits spécifiquement pour les journaux. Tous ces textes traitent
de l'élection fédérale canadienne de 1997, de 2000, de 2004 ou de 2006,
et tous font appel aux données de l'ÉÉC.
Elections and Election Outcomes
Anatomy of a Liberal Victory: Making Sense of the
Vote in the 2000 Canadian Election
André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Richard Nadeau, Neil Nevitte
(2002)
Anatomy of a Liberal Victory provides a comprehensive account of
the factors that led Canadians to vote the way they did in the 2000
Canadian election. The authors address in particular the following
questions: Why was turnout so low? What were Canadians’ perceptions
of the economy and how much impact did these perceptions have on
vote choice? What were voters’ opinions on the major issues
of the day and did these opinions affect their decision on election
day? What did voters think of the leaders and how much weight did
these evaluations have on their choice?
(Peterborough: Broadview Press)
Unsteady State: The 1997 Canadian Federal Election
Neil Nevitte, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Richard
Nadeau (2000)
How did the 1997 Canadian Federal Election differ from those that
have come before it? Had the country’s demographics changed
dramatically enough to flummox pollsters and the parties? Are we
headed toward American-style politics as candidate campaigns become
highly charged and even more personal? Neil Nevitte, André
Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil and Richard Nadeau examine what worked,
what didn’t and why for the four major parties and the independent
candidates in Unsteady State.
(Don Mills: Oxford University Press)
The Anatomy of a Liberal Defeat
Paper prepared for presentation at the annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science
Association, May 2009, Carleton University, Ottawa.
Elisabeth Gidengil, Patrick Fournier, Joanna Everitt,
Neil Nevitte, and André Blais (2009)
Abstract:
This paper uses data from the 2000, 2004, 2006 and 2008 Canadian
Election Studies to analyze the causes of the Liberal party’s historic
defeat in the 2008 federal election. The analyses reveal the importance of
long-term factors for understanding the change in the party’s electoral
fortunes since 2000. The paper ends with a consideration of the
implications for the Liberals’ future electoral prospects, as well the
larger literature on voting behaviour in Canada.
 View in Acrobat
Back to the Future? Making Sense of the 2004 Canadian Election Outside
Quebec
Published in Canadian Journal of Political Science 39: 1-25.
Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Joanna Everitt, Patrick Fournier,
and Neil Nevitte (2006)
Abstract:
This paper uses data from the 2004 Canadian Election Study to analyze
the factors that motivated a vote for each party and to identify the ones
that mattered most to the outcome of the 2004 federal election outside
Quebec. Particular attention is given to the impact of the sponsorship
scandal, the sources of support for the new Conservative party and the
factors that explain the NDP's improved performance. The findings are
used to address some basic questions about the 2004 election and its larger
implications.
View in Acrobat
Making Sense of Regional Voting in the 1997 Federal
Election: Liberal and Reform Support Outside Quebec
Published in Canadian Journal of Political Science 32: 247-272
Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Richard Nadeau
(1999)
Abstract:
This article uses a regression decomposition approach to explore the meaning
of the gaps in Liberal support between Ontario, the West and Atlantic
Canada, as well as the gap in Reform support between the West and Ontario.
The analysis proceeds in two stages. The first stage involves determining
whether the regional vote gaps reflect "true" regional differences
or whether they can be explained simply in terms of differences in the
socio-demographic makeup of the regions. Having ascertained that the gaps
are not spurious, the second stage of the analysis probes the beliefs
and attitudes that underlie them. It turns out that the gaps are driven
not just by differences in political orientations and beliefs from one
region to another, but also by more fundamental differences in basic political
priorities.
View in Acrobat
Making Sense of the Vote: The 2000 Canadian Election
Paper presented at the biennial meeting of the Association for Canadian
Studies in the United States, San Antonio, Texas, November 14-18, 2001
Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Neil Nevitte
Abstract:
This paper proposes an account of the factors that led Canadians to vote
the way they did in the 2000 Canadian election. We address in particular
the following questions : How many Canadians can be construed as partisans
who traditionally support the same party from one election to another
and to what extent does the vote reflect these traditional loyalties?
What were Canadians’ perceptions of the economy and how much impact
did these perceptions have on vote choice? What were voters’ positions
on the major issues of the day and did these positions affect their decision
on election day? And what did voters think of the leaders and how much
weight did their evaluations have on their choice?
View in Acrobat
Campaign Effects
Election Campaigns as Information Campaigns: Who Learns What and Does
It Matter.
Published in Political Communication 25(3): 229-248.
Richard Nadeau, Neil Nevitte, André Blais, and Elisabeth Gidengil
(2008)
Abstract:
During election campaigns political parties compete to inform voters about
their leaders, the issues, and where they stand on these issues. In that
sense, election campaigns can be viewed as a particular kind of information
campaign. Democratic theory supposes that participatory democracies are
better served by an informed electorate rather than an uninformed one.
But do all voters make equal information gains during campaigns? Why do
some people make more information gains than others? And does the acquisition
of campaign information have any impact on vote intentions? Combining
insights from political science research, communications theory and social
psychology, we develop specific hypotheses about these campaign information
dynamics. These hypotheses are tested with data from the 1997 Canadian
Election Study, which includes a rolling cross-national campaign component,
a post-election component, and a media content analysis. The results show
that some people do make more information gains than others; campaigns
produce a knowledge gap. Moreover, the intensity of media signals on different
issues has an important impact on who receives what information, and information
gains have a significant impact on vote intentions.
View in Acrobat
Time-of-Voting Decision and Susceptibility to Campaign Effects
Published in Electoral Studies
Patrick Fournier, André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil
and Neil Nevitte (2004)
Abstract:
There is mounting evidence that election campaigns matter. There are also
reasons to expect interpersonal heterogeneity in the susceptibility to
campaign influence. Time-of-voting decision has been suggested as a key
mediating variable for campaign effects. However, there is no persuasive
empirical evidence to substantiate the claim that people who decide during
campaigns actually respond to campaign events or campaign-specific information.
This study incorporates time of decision into dynamic models of campaign
effects in order to test whether there is a significant interaction effect
between time of decision and campaign persuasion. In sum, the vote intentions
of campaign deciders are indeed more volatile because they respond to
actual campaign events and coverage, not because they fluctuate haphazardly.
People who say they decided before the campaign are, reassuringly, not
influenced by campaigns.
View in Acrobat
Campaign Dynamics in the 2000 Canadian Election: How the Leader Debates
Salvaged the Conservative Party
Published in PS: Political Science & Politics, January 2003, 45-50
André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Richard Nadeau, Neil Nevitte
(2003)
Abstract:
Canada’s Progressive Conservative Party faced the prospects of electoral
annihilation going into the 2000 election. We show that the 2000 campaign
was critical in salvaging the fate of the Conservative party, and that
this Canadian election provides yet more evidence that campaigns matter.
The English debate appears to have been critical in the Conservative surge.
That surge may have been small but it was important enough to ensure the
party’s survival and to allow it to keep its official status in
the House of Commons. None of the other campaign events seems to have
had a lasting effect on any of the parties.
View in Acrobat
Campaign Dynamics in the 1997 Canadian Election
Published in Canadian Public Policy 25: 197-205
André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte
(1999)
Abstract:
The paper uses the 1997 Canadian Election Study (CES) to determine whether
there were significant dynamics in the 1997 Canadian election and to provide
an assessment of the two key events of the campaign: the televised leader
debates and the "Quebec" Reform ad. The data indicate that both
events had a substantial impact on vote intentions but that the impact
was only temporary. Their final effect on the outcome of the election
was negligible. The data also indicate that, irrespective of these two
events, Reform made some gains during the campaign, mostly at the expense
of the Liberals.
View in Acrobat
Priming and Campaign Context: Evidence from Recent Canadian Elections
Published in David Farrell and Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck (eds.), Do Political
Campaigns Matter? Campaign Effects in Elections and Referendums, London:
Routledge
Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Richard Nadeau
(2002)
Abstract:
This paper uses data from the 1988, 1993 and 1997 Canadian Election Studies
to examine the priming effect of election campaigns. We demonstrate that
campaigns clearly do affect the bases on which people decide their vote.
These priming effects vary, though, depending on the nature of the campaign.
We conclude that issue priming may be the exception rather than the norm,
occurring only when new and dramatic issues dominate the campaign. This
was the case in the 1988 election. In the absence of a single dominant
issue, the priming of leadership is the more typical campaign effect,
reflecting the leader-centered nature of campaign coverage. In both 1993
and 1997, leader evaluations became more important to the vote as the
campaign progressed and as media consumption increased. The more leadership
was primed, the less important party identification became to the vote.
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Gender
Network Diversity and Vote Choice: Women's Social Ties and Left Voting
in Canada. Published in Politics & Gender 3: 151-77.
Elisabeth Gidengil, Allison Harell and Bonnie Erickson (2007)
Abstract:
Building on Mark Granovetter's concept of weak ties, we argue that diverse
social networks can enhance the propensity of women to vote for a party
of the Left. Using data from the 2000 Canadian Election Study, we test
two hypotheses: First, the wider the range of women known, the more likely
women are to vote for the Left, and second, the wider the range of higher-status
women known, the more likely married women are to vote for the Left. We
argue that socially communicated cues may be particularly consequential
for women because they tend to know less about the parties and their platforms
than men do. Accordingly, casual acquaintances can be an important source
of new information for women. Women with more diverse ties to other women,
we argue, are more likely to encounter women who are voting for the party
of the Left and to recognize their shared interest in voting similarly.
Our second hypothesis builds on Susan Carroll's argument that women require
sufficient autonomy to express their gender-related interests in their
choice of party. We argue that married women's political autonomy can
be enhanced if their social networks include a range of women who do enjoy
such autonomy. Ties with higher-status women can be a source of psychological
resources that facilitate voting for a party of the Left. We find support
for both of these hypotheses.
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Explaining the Gender Gap in Support for the New Right:
The Case of Canada
Published in Comparative Political Studies 38: 1-25.
Elisabeth Gidengil, Matthew Hennigar, André Blais, Neil Nevitte
and Richard Nadeau (2005)
Abstract:
One of the most consistent predictors of support for radical right-wing
populist parties in Western Europe has been gender. Men are much more
likely than women to be attracted to the new right. Why this should be
so is “a complex and intriguing puzzle”. It is all the more
puzzling given the diversity in the nature and electoral fortunes of the
political parties that fit under the new right umbrella . In this paper,
we examine the gender gap in support for Canada’s new right party
in the 2000 federal election.
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in Acrobat
Women to the Left? Gender Differences in Political Beliefs and Policy
Preferences
Published in Manon Tremblay and Linda Trimble (eds.), Gender and Electoral
Representation in Canada, Don Mills: Oxford University Press, 140-59
Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Neil Nevitte
(2003)
Abstract:
The 1993 federal election witnessed the emergence of a significant gender
gap in support for the new party of the right: women were much less likely
than men to vote Reform, a trend that continued in the 1997 federal election.
Although the Reform Party subsequently reconstituted itself as the Alliance
Party and sought to reshape its image, the gender gap in support persisted
in the 2000 federal election. Meanwhile, in the 1997 election, a gender
gap also opened up on the left and it, too, appeared again in the 2000
election. In both 1997 and 2000, women were more likely than men to opt
for the NDP, the traditional party of the left. In this chapter, we examine
whether these gender gaps in vote choice are paralleled by differences
between women and men in their basic political beliefs and policy preferences.
View in Acrobat
Gender and Vote Choice in the 2006 Canadian Election
Paper presented to the Annual Meeting of the APSA, Philadelphia, PA, August
30-September 3 2006
Elisabeth Gidengil, Joanna Everitt, André Blais, Patrick Fournier
and Neil Nevitte
Abstract:
Inglehart and Norris (2003) have argued that a process of gender realignment
is pushing men to the right and women to the left. This paper uses data
from the 2006 Canadian election study to assess their argument that the
"modern gender gap" is rooted in cultural differences between
women and men rather than in structural and situational differences. While
there is some evidence that public sector employment and higher education
help to explain why women are more likely than men to vote for the NDP,
their impact is offset by religiosity. Women tend to be more religious
than men and this helps to explain why many women remain attracted to
the Conservatives. The most important factors in explaining why men are
more likely than women to vote for the right-wing party and women are
more likely than men to vote for the left-wing party are clearly cultural.
Women are more skeptical than men of market-based arguments, less ready
to embrace closer ties with the US, and more liberal when it comes to
social mores and alternative lifestyles. The paper ends with a discussion
of the implications of gendered patterns of voting for electoral politics
in Canada.
View in Acrobat
Gender, Knowledge and Social Capital
Paper presented at the conference on Gender
and Social Capital, University of Manitoba, May 2003
Elisabeth Gidengil, Elizabeth Goodyear-Grant, Neil Nevitte, André
Blais and Richard Nadeau (2003)
Abstract:
This paper uses data from the 2000 Canadian Election Study (CES) to examine
the interplay between gender, social capital and knowledge about politics.
We set out to show why men and women with equivalent amounts of social
capital can have very different stocks of political information. The answer
lies, we argue, in the gendered nature of social capital and in gender
differences in the salience of politics.
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in Acrobat
Women to the Left, Men to the Right? Gender and Voting in the 1997 Canadian
Election
Paper presented at the 18th World Congress of the International Political
Science Association, Quebec City, August 1-5, 2000
Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Richard Nadeau
Abstract:
The first part of the paper examines trends in the gender gap in Canada
between 1965 and 1997. We demonstrate that Canada presents a clear case
of gender realignment. The gender gap in Reform voting in the 1993 and
1997 elections provides compelling evidence that men have been more likely
than women to move to the right. Female support for the NDP increased
in the late 1970s and 1980s, but the more important reason for the emergence
of a gender gap in support for the left in the 1990s was that women were
less likely than men to move away from the NDP. The second part of the
paper tests possible explanations of the gender gaps on both the left
and the right. We broaden the scope of gender gap research to consider
both female-centered and male-centered interpretations. Overall, we found
more support for socio-psychological explanations than for explanations
that emphasized structural and situational.
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Issues and the Economy
Which Matters Most? Comparing the Impact of Issues and the Economy in
American, British, and Canadian Elections
Published in British Journal of Political Science, 2004 34(3), 555-63
André Blais, Mathieu Turgeon, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte
and Richard Nadeau (2004)
Abstract:
The paper assesses and compares the relative impact of issues and the
economy in recent American, British, and Canadian elections. A rich and
vast literature deals with issue voting on the one hand and economic voting
on the other hand, but relatively little work has been done to address
the simple but basic question: Which matters most, the issues or the economy?
We develop a statistical model of vote choice in 11 recent American, British,
and Canadian elections, and perform simulations to estimate how many people
would have voted differently, and how different the vote shares of the
parties would have been, if either the issues or the economy had had no
effect on vote choice. We find that in each country issues matter more
than the economy with respect to both individual vote choice and the actual
outcome of the election.
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Do (Some) Voters Punish a Prime Minister for Calling
an Early Election?
Published in Political Studies, 2004 52(2), 307-23
André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Richard Nadeau, Neil Nevitte
(2004)
Abstract:
Are voters willing to punish a prime minister for calling an ‘unnecessary’
snap election for purely opportunistic reasons? This paper examines voters’
reactions to the Canadian prime minister’s decision to call a snap
election in November 2000. The decision provoked limited resentment, and
that resentment was strongest among partisans of the opposition parties
and among those who follow politics closely. Those who do not keep up
with politics, it seems, either did not realize that the election was
precipitous or simply did not care. The paper shows that resentment about
the election call was a consideration in vote choice, but it was a decisive
consideration for a very small group of voters. We estimate that the electoral
cost to the incumbent Liberal Party was one percentage point. Some voters
are prepared to punish prime ministers for opportunistically calling a
snap election, but in this case the electoral penalty was small.
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Issue Importance and Performance Voting
Political Behavior, 25:51-67
Patrick Fournier, Richard Nadeau, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil,
Neil Nevitte (2003)
Abstract:
Issue importance mediates the impact of public policy issues on electoral
decisions (Krosnick, 1988, 1990). Individuals who consider that an issue
is important are more likely to rely on their attitudes toward that issue
when evaluating candidates and deciding whom to vote for. The logic behind
the link between issue importance and issue voting should translate to
a link between issue importance and performance voting. Incumbent performance
evaluations regarding an issue should have a stronger impact on the vote
choice of individuals who find that issue important. The analysis demonstrates
that there is a significant interaction between performance evaluations
and issue importance. People concerned about an issue assign more weight
to their evaluations of the government on that issue when making up their
mind.
View in Acrobat
The Impact of Issues and the Economy in the 1997 Canadian Federal Election
Published in Canadian Journal of Political Science, 35: 409-421
André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte
(2002)
Abstract:
The article examines the impact of issues and the economy in the 1997
Canadian election among voters outside Quebec. We show that both factors
affected individual vote choice. We provide estimates of how much difference
the issues and the economy made in the election. It appears that the issues
were decisive for nine per cent of the voters and the economy for four
per cent. Issues mattered more than the economy for individual vote choice.
The net impact of both the issues and the economy on vote support for
the different parties was practically nil. The findings indicate that
the Liberal victory cannot be imputed to the economy or the issues.
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The Formation of Party Preferences: Testing the Proximity and Directional
Models
Published in European Journal of Political Research, 40: 81-91
André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte
(2001)
Abstract:
We review the methodological debate between defenders of the proximity
and directional models. We propose what we believe to be a rigorous and
fair test of the two models, using the 1997 Canadian Election Study. The
analysis is based on responses to questions in which the various issue
positions are explicitly spelled out. We rely on individual perceptions
of party positions because it is individual perceptions that matter in
the formation of party preferences but we control for projection effects
through a multivariate model that incorporates, in addition to indicators
of distance and direction, socio-demographic characteristics, party identification,
and leader ratings. We also take into account whether a party is perceived
to be extreme. The empirical evidence vindicates the proximity model.
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It's Unemployment, Stupid! Why Perceptions About the Job Situation Hurt
the Liberals in the 1997 Election
Published in Canadian Public Policy, 26: 77-94
Richard Nadeau, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Elisabeth Gidengil
(2000)
Abstract:
The Liberals almost lost their parliamentary majority in June 1997. This
article argues that perceptions of the unemployment situation hurt the
Liberals and cost them the support of almost three percentage points of
votes. We examine the reasons why Canadians did not render a more positive
judgment on the job situation despite a decrease of the official unemployment
rate in Canada during the Liberal mandate. The results of this study raise
a number of questions about voters' behaviour, about the diffusion and
penetration of both general and economic information within the electorate,
about the criteria with which voters use to judge governments, and on
the incentives these governments might have to manufacture political business
cycles.
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The Political Psychology of Voters' Reactions to a Corruption Scandal
Paper presented to the Annual Meeting of the APSA, Washington DC, 1-4
September 2005
André Blais, Joanna Everitt, Patrick Fournier, Elisabeth Gidengil
and Neil Nevitte
Abstract:
The paper examines voters’ reactions to a corruption scandal that
erupted just before the 2004 Canadian election. We use the 2004 Canadian
Election Study, which included a series of questions tapping voters’
views about the scandal. We show that: the scandal had a major impact
on the vote; that partisan loyalties remained quite important though reactions
to the scandal were only slightly coloured by partisan predispositions;
one’s prior views about politicians strongly affected how one perceived
the scandal; information had both direct and indirect effects on opinions
but that the direct effects were particularly striking; and an emotional
reaction (anger) was not a necessary or sufficient condition motivating
voters to punish the government.
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in Acrobat
Leaders and Candidates
Does the Local Candidate Matter?
Published in Canadian Journal of Political Science, 2003 36(3)
André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Agnieszka Dobrzynska, Richard
Nadeau, Neil Nevitte (2003)
Abstract:
The paper ascertains the impact of local candidates on vote choice in
the 2000 Canadian election. We show that 44 per cent of Canadian voters
formed a preference for a local candidate and that this preference had
an effect on vote choice independent of how people felt about the parties
and the leaders. The findings suggest that the local candidate was a decisive
consideration for 5 per cent of Canadian voters, 6 per cent outside Quebec
and 2 per cent in Quebec. Although preference for a local candidate had
a similar effect on urban and rural voters, as well as on voters of varying
degrees of sophistication, the findings revealed that rural voters and
more sophisticated voters were more likely to have formed a preference
for a local candidate. As a consequence, the local candidate was more
likely to be a decisive consideration for more ss.
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Do People Have Feelings Towards Leaders About Whom They Say They Know
Nothing?
Published in Public Opinion Quarterly, 64: 452-463
André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil
(2000)
Abstract:
Most people have feelings about leaders even if they say they know nothing
about them. When asked how they feel about these leaders, people usually
provide a rating and most of the time these ratings are meaningful, in
the sense that they have an independent effect on their vote. At the same
time, those who indicate they know nothing about a leader appear to be
less confident about their evaluations. As a consequence, they attach
less weight to these evaluations and more to how they feel about the parties
when deciding how to vote. The practical implication is that it is useful
to tap respondents' subjective level of knowledge about the leaders, because
leader evaluations tend to have a smaller impact on the vote among those
who feel they know nothing about a leader. These findings are consistent
with the middle position taken by Zaller about non-opinion and non-attitudes.
The data indicate that the responses provided by those who say they know
nothing about a leader do not simply reflect random guessing. At the same
time, a respondent who says she knows nothing about a leader conveys the
message that her feelings towards that person are particularly tentative.
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Are Party Leaders Becoming More Important to Vote Choice in Canada?
Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science
Association, Washington DC, August 30 - September 3, 2000
Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Richard Nadeau
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of leader and party evaluations on vote
choice in Canada over a thirty-year time period, from 1968 to 1997. It
finds no support for the proposition that leaders have become more important
to the vote. Leader evaluations do have a significant independent impact
on vote choice, but leader effects have not increased across time. There
is also little evidence that party effects have diminished. Levels of
television exposure, campaign interest and education have only a modest
effect on the relative weight of leader and party evaluations.
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Parties and Party Identification
The Correlates and Consequences of Anti-Partyism in the 1997 Canadian
Election
Published in Party Politics, 7: 491-513
Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Richard Nadeau
(2001)
Abstract:
This article examines why anti-party rhetoric resonates with some citizens,
but not with others, and how this affects their electoral behaviour. The
data are taken from the 1997 Canadian Election Study. Social background
characteristics turn out to have only a very modest effect on anti-party
sentiment. Political sophistication is associated with a less critical
view of political parties, while economic frustration and perceived system
deficiencies make for more negative attitudes, but the key factor is issue
alienation from the incumbent party. This is also the most important factor
in influencing how citizens express their anti-party sentiment. Anti-partyism
is more likely to result in an 'anti-party' vote than in abstention. Those
who are more involved and more informed are especially likely to work
for change within the system.
View in Acrobat
Measuring Party Identification: Britain, Canada, and
the United States
Published in Political Behavior, 23: 5-22
André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Richard Nadeau, Neil Nevitte
(2001)
Abstract:
The paper proposes an empirically based reflection on how to measure party
identification cross-nationally, using data from the 1997 Canadian Election
Study, the 1997 British Election Study, and the 1996 American National
Election Study. These studies included both traditional national questions
and a new common one, which allows for an assessment of the effects of
question wording on the distribution and correlates of party identification.
We show that the distribution of party identification is strongly affected
by question wording and that the relationship between party identification
and variables such as party and leader ratings, voting behavior, and age
does not quite conform to theoretical expectations. We point out problems
in the wording of party identification questions and propose an alternative
formulation.
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Do Party Supporters Differ?
Published in Joanna Everitt and Brenda O'Neill (eds.), Citizen Politics:
Research and Theory in Canadian Political Behaviour, Don Mills: Oxford
University Press, p.184-201
André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Richard Nadeau, Neil Nevitte
(2002)
Abstract:
There is a debate, in Canada as elsewhere, about whether parties really
make a difference. Much of the literature on this question looks at whether
policies and spending differ according to the partisan composition of
governments. The approach adopted here is different. Using survey data
from the 1997 Canadian Election Study, we examine the extent to which
each party's voters differ in their views on the major issues of the day.
View in Acrobat
Changes in the Party System and Anti-Party Sentiment
Published in William Cross (ed.), Political Parties, Representation, and
Electoral Democracy in Canada, Don Mills: Oxford University Press, p.68-86
Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Neil Nevitte
(2002)
Abstract:
This chapter examines whether the emergence of two new parties in the
1993 election helped to restore Canadians' confidence in the health and
viability of political parties. We conclude that the answer has to be
different for Quebec and for Canada outside Quebec. Outside Quebec, there
is little evidence to suggest that the trend toward increasing disaffection
with political parties has been halted. Turnout has declined sharply since
1988, the proportion of people who lack any residual sense of party identification
has grown, and feelings about political parties as a whole have gone from
being lukewarm or neutral, on average, to being clearly negative. In Quebec,
on the other hand, the option of voting for a sovereignist party in federal
elections has clearly helped to check anti-partyism.
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Long-Term Predisposition or Short-Term Attitude? A Panel-Based
Comparison of Party Identification Measures
Paper prepared for presentation in the ‘Beyond Party Identification
and Beyond Workshop’ at the Joint Sessions of the European Consortium
for Political Research, Nicosia, April 2006.
Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Joanna Everitt, Patrick Fournier
and Neil Nevitte
Abstract:
Panel data from the 2004-2006 Canadian Election Study suggest that many
Canadians do have a meaningful attachment to a political party. Party
identification typically remained intact, even when people voted at odds
with their party. While there were certainly instances of party identification
traveling along with the vote, it was much more common for party identification
to persist. The most telling example of this is Liberal partisanship in
the 2006 election: fully a third of Liberal identifiers failed to vote
for the party. The revelations of wrongdoing in the run up to the election
may have swayed their vote, but it did not shake their attachment to the
party. Despite the unfolding of the sponsorship scandal, even Liberal
partisanship exhibited only a modest tendency for recent shocks to induce
a drift away from the party.
View in Acrobat
Perceptions of Party Competence in the 1997 Election
Published in Hugh Thorburn and Alan Whitehorn (eds.) Party Politics in
Canada 8th ed. Toronto: Prentice-Hall, p.413-430
Richard Nadeau, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte
(2001)
Abstract:
This chapter uses data from the Canadian Election Study to examine Canadians’
perceptions about the parties’ competence in dealing with a number
of issues at the time of the 1997 federal election. This analysis is of
interest for two reasons. First, it allows an assessment of how the arrival
of two new parties on the federal scene, namely the Reform Party and the
Bloc Québécois, modified these perceptions. Second, it provides
a more systematic examination of the effect of party image on Canadian
electoral behaviour than has been undertaken to date.
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Strategic Voting
Measuring expectations: Comparing alternative approaches
Electoral Studies 2008
André Blais , Elisabeth Gidengil , Patrick Fournier, Neil Nevitte
, Bruce M. Hicks
Abstract:
The paper compares three alternative approaches employed by the Canadian
Election Study to measure voters’ perceptions of parties’
chances of winning in their local constituency. The first approach, used
in 2000, consists of asking respondents to rate parties’ chances
on a 0 to 100 scale in a random sequence. The second, used in 2004, entails
first asking whether each party had a chance of winning and then inviting
people to rate the chances. In the third approach, adopted in 2006, respondents
are first asked which two parties had the best chance of winning and,
then, if any other party has a chance, before requesting that they rate
the mentioned parties. By comparing ‘‘objective’’
and ‘‘perceived’’ chances of winning, the paper
concludes that the third approach provides a more valid measure of voters’
expectations. The paper discusses the implications for the measurement
of expectations in different types of electoral systems.
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Measuring Strategic Voting in Multiparty Plurality Elections
Published in Electoral Studies, 20: 343-352
André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte
(2001)
Abstract:
We propose a method for measuring strategic voting in multiparty plurality
elections, and we apply that method to the 1997 Canadian election. The
first stage of the inquiry determines whether voters' expectations about
the outcome of the election have an independent effect on vote choice,
after controlling their preferences, more specifically their party identification
and evaluations of parties and leaders. We show that in the 1997 Canadian
election perceptions of the local race in the constituency did affect
the vote, but not perceptions of the race for who would form the government
and the official opposition. The second stage of the analysis consists
in assessing for each respondent whether her vote was sincere or strategic:
a respondent is deemed to have cast a strategic vote if whether her expectations
about the outcome of the election are considered or not leads to a different
prediction about which party she is most likely to support. On that basis,
we estimate that about 3% of voters cast a strategic vote in the 1997
election.
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Voter Turnout and Political
Engagement
Citizens
Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, Richard
Nadeau (2004)
Citizens are central to any meaningful definition of democracy.
What does it say about the health of Canadian democracy when fewer
citizens than ever are exercising their right to vote and party
membership rolls are shrinking? Are increasingly well-educated citizens
turning away from traditional electoral politics in favour of other
forms of democratic engagement or are they simply withdrawing from
political participation altogether?
The first comprehensive assessment of citizen engagement in Canada,
this volume raises challenging questions about the interests and
capabilities of Canadians as democratic citizens, as well as the
performance of our democratic institutions. It is essential reading
for politicians and policy-makers, students and scholars of Canadian
politics, and all those who care about the quality of Canadian democracy.
(Vancouver: UBC Press)
The Political Resocialization of Immigrants: Resistance or Life-Long
Learning?
Published in Political Research Quarterly 61(2): 268-81.
Stephen White, Neil Nevitte, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil,
and Patrick Fournier (2008).
Abstract:
How adaptable are immigrants to new host political systems? Theories of
political socialization contain competing expectations about immigrants'
potential for political re-socialization. Premigration beliefs and actions
may be resistant to change; exposure to the new political system may facilitate
adaptation; or immigrants may find ways to transfer beliefs and behaviors
from one political system to another. Using pooled election study data
from an immigrant rich country, Canada, this analysis proposes an alternative
strategy for measuring for pre- and postmigration experiences and empirically
tests these three alternative theories of resocialization. The results
indicate that both transfer and exposure matter; there is little evidence
that premigration beliefs and actions are resistant to change. Moreover,
how immigrants adjust to their new host political system depends on which
orientation or behavior being considered, and what kind of political environments
migrants come from.
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Does Low turnout Matter? Evidence from the 2000 Canadian
General Election
Published in Electoral Studies 26(3): 589-97.
Daniel Rubenson, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte
and Patrick Fournier (2007)
Abstract:
Turnout in Western democracies has been in steady decline over the past
decade or longer. There is a vast literature on the causes and possible
explanations for the decline. Most of these studies explicitly or implicitly
argue that we should be concerned that fewer citizens go to the polls.
One oft stated argument is that low turnout biases election results in
favour of right-of-centre parties because rich citizens are far more likely
to vote than poor citizens. We test these propositions using data from
the 2000 Canadian Election Study. We analyze differences in opinion between
voters and non-voters across a wide spectrum of policy areas and we test
the hypothesis that the outcome of the 2000 Canadian General Election
would have been appreciably different if all citizens were to have voted,
by simulating universal turnout. We find scant evidence of partisan effects
of turnout in Canada. Voters’ opinions are by and large representative
of the larger population and universal turnout would not have notably
changed the election result.
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Making Up for Lost Time Immigrant Voter Turnout in Canada
Published in Electoral Insight, 2006 (December)
Stephen White, Neil Nevitte, André Blais, Joanna Everitt, Patrick
Fournier, Elisabeth Gidengil
Abstract:
This article uses data from pooled samples of foreign-born and native-born
Canadians from the 1988, 1993, 1997, 2000 and 2004 Canadian Election Studies
(CES) to compare the determinants of voter turnout in these groups. There
are reasonable grounds for speculating that levels of voter turnout might
be different among immigrant Canadians than their native-born counterparts.
The evidence presented here paints a more complex picture of voter turnout
among immigrants than might otherwise have been expected. The CES data
show that similar numbers of foreign-born and native-born Canadians turn
out to vote. The data also indicate that the political learning curve
is steeper for immigrants, but they do compensate for lost time.
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online
Missing the Message: Young Adults and the Election
Issues
Published in Electoral Insight, 2005 (January)
Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Joanna Everitt, Patrick Fournier
and Neil Nevitte
Abstract:
Voter turnout in last June's federal election confounded optimistic predictions
that a close election would reverse the decline in electoral participation.
Even though the outcome of the election remained uncertain, Canadians
stayed away from the polls in record numbers. Since the 1988 election,
turnout has dropped 15 points to reach a historic low of 60.9% in 2004.
Detailed analyses of electoral participation since the 1968 federal election
indicate that much of the decline has been driven by generational replacement.1
Today's young Canadians are much less likely to vote than their parents
or their grandparents were when they were in their twenties. Indeed, according
to our survey results, turnout in the 2004 federal election was 15 points
lower among those aged 18 to 29 than it was among those aged 30 and over.
While no single factor explains this trend,2 many young Canadians seem
to be tuning out of politics altogether.
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online
Accounting for the Age Gap in Turnout
Forthcoming in Acta Politica 39(4)
Daniel Rubenson, Patrick Fournier, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil
and Neil Nevitte (2004)
Abstract:
We explore a number of explanations for the sharp difference in voter
turnout between the post-generation X cohort and older citizens, using
data from the 2000 Canadian Election Study. The gap in turnout between
these groups is more than 27 percentage points. Controlling for sociodemographic
factors reduces the age gap by almost a third. If we control for respondents’
perception of the closeness of the race in their riding, whether they
were contacted during the campaign and whether they identify with a political
party, the gap decreases by a further 3 points-a reduction of 43% in the
original gap. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that cynicism and
negative attitudes toward politics and politicians are poor explanations
for the discrepancy in turnout between young and old. Finally, if we include
political information and interest in the model, there is no statistically
significant difference in turnout between young and old citizens.
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Where Does Turnout Decline Come From?
Published in European Journal of Political Research, 2004 43(2), 221-36
André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte, Richard Nadeau
(2004)
Abstract:
This article looks at the socio-demographic sources of turnout decline
in Canada. The analysis is based on the Canadian Election Studies that
have been conducted between 1968 and 2000. There is a small period effect
which suggests that the propensity to vote has declined marginally (by
about three percentage points) in all demographic groups. There are substantial
life cycle effects – that is, turnout shifts within a given cohort
as members of that cohort grow older. There are powerful generation effects:
turnout differs among the various cohorts even when we compare them at
the same stage of their life cycle. The much lower turnout among the post-baby-boomers
is the main reason why turnout has declined overall in Canada. The most
recent generations are less prone to vote in good part because they pay
less attention to politics and because they are less likely to adhere
to the norm that voting is not only a right, but also a moral duty. The
decline in turnout thus reflects a larger cultural change. Education remains
an important correlate of voting. The increase in educational attainment
has contributed to dampening the decline in turnout. There is no evidence
that the decline in turnout has been more acute among certain sub-groups
of the electorate (leaving aside age and education).
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Turned Off or Tuned Out? Youth Participation in Politics
Published in Electoral Insight, 2003 (July)
Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Neil Nevitte and Richard Nadeau
Abstract:
Young Canadians are turning their backs on electoral politics in unprecedented
numbers. The optimistic assumption is that they are turning to other forms
of political engagement instead. This assumption is encouraged by the
fact that today's young Canadians are much more likely than their parents'
or grandparents' generation to have had a university education. The assumption
gains credence from media images of young people protesting against globalization
or the war against Iraq. What we are seeing, the argument goes, is a new
generation of highly educated young Canadians who are frustrated with
traditional electoral politics and who are turning to more autonomous
forms of political action. However, as this article demonstrates, there
is evidence this represents an unduly sanguine reading of the situation.
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online
Socio-economic Status and Non-Voting: A Cross-National
Comparative Analysis
Published in Hans-Dieter Klingemann, ed., The Comparative Study of Electoral
Systems Volume 1, Oxford University Press.
Neil Nevitte, André Blais, Elisabeth Gidengil, Richard Nadeau
(forthcoming)
Abstract:
This study examines the relationship between socio-economic status and
non-voting using data from the first module of the Comparative Study of
Electoral Systems project,. SES influences non-voting in all countries
included in the first module, regardless of economic, political or institutional
characteristics. The strength and patterns of the relationship between
SES and non-voting vary cross-nationally. The main finding is that four
SES variables are consistently related to non-voting even after contextual
factors, like economic conditions, electoral history (whether a new or
consolidated democracies), electoral rules, and party systems are taken
into account, low SES is still associated with non-voting.
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Gender, Knowledge and Social Capital
Published in Brenda O’Neill and Elisabeth Gidengil, (eds). Gender
and Social Capital, New York: Routledge, 241-72.
Elisabeth Gidengil, Elizabeth Goodyear-Grant, Neil Nevitte, and André
Blais (2006)
Abstract:
Women typically know less about politics than men do (Delli Carpini and
Keeter 1996; Verba, Burns and Schlozman 1997; Norris 2000; Gidengil et
al. forthcoming). This gender gap in political knowledge cannot be explained
by differences in educational attainment or material resources. Nor can
it be explained by the greater demands that childcare responsibilities
continue to make on many women’s time. Most importantly for our
purposes, this knowledge gap cannot be explained by any differences in
the amount of social capital accumulated by women and men. As such, it
demands a critical re-appraisal of Robert Putnam’s (2000, 343) argument
that “social capital allows political information to spread.”
After all, if social capital really does facilitate the spread of information
about politics and if women accumulate as much social capital as men,
women should know just as much about politics as men.
This paper uses data from the 2000 Canadian Election Study (CES) to
examine the interplay between gender, social capital and knowledge about
politics. We set out to show why men and women with equivalent amounts
of social capital can have very different stocks of political information.
The answer lies, we argue, in the gendered nature of social capital and
in gender differences in the salience of politics
Elections and Satisfaction with Democracy
Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science
Association, Washington D.C., August 30-September 3, 2000
Richard Nadeau, André Blais, Neil Nevitte, and Elisabeth Gidengil
Abstract:
Democracy consists of a set of principles and rules that allow collectivities
to make decisions in an economical, predictable and peaceful manner. Voters'
satisfaction with democracy should therefore normally peak in the post-electoral
period, immediately after these principles have been successfully put
to the test. But is this really the case ? Does satisfaction with democracy
increase in a significant manner after an election ? And if it does, what
factors lead individuals to express greater satisfaction with the workings
of democracy after an election ? The 1997 Canadian Election Study allow
us to draw specific conclusions concerning the relationship between elections
and satisfaction with democracy, and the possible 'demonstration' effect
elections can have on citizens' post-election attitudes towards the workings
of democracy. Our findings show that the level of satisfaction with democracy
increases in a noticeable manner after an election, but apparently not
during the campaign. Moreover, this increase appears linked less to the
election specific result (the re-election of the incumbent government)
than to its general result of electing a legitimate government.
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Other Topics
Validation of Time of Voting Decision Recall
Published in Public Opinion Quarterly, 65: 95-107
Patrick Fournier, André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil,
Neil Nevitte (2001)
Abstract:
This paper examines the validity of reported time of voting decision.
Previous studies have found that this recall question does not provide
reliable indicators of actual behavior. These studies focus on the American
electoral system. We present data from Canada. In the context of a campaign
which spans less than two months and where the alternatives are clearly
defined before the start of the campaign, reported time of voting decision
turns out to be an excellent predictor of the stability and instability
of vote choice between panel waves. Most voters really do move from indecision
to decision and from one choice to their final decision at the time which
they say they made up their mind.
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Harper's soft underbelly: Insights from the Canadian Election Study
Published in Inroads, Winter
Joanna Everitt, André Blais, Patrick Fournier, Elisabeth Gidengil,
Neil Nevitte (2007)
Abstract:
By THE SUMMER, LESS THAN HALF A YEAR AFTER STEPHEN HARPER and the Conservative
Party won power as a minority government, their honeymoon with the voters
was over. They had dropped the four or five percentage points they had
gained in the polls, leaving them no more popular than they had been at
the time of the January election. Part of the explanation for their decline
would appear to lie in the area of foreign policy, where the government
is increasingly out of step with the Canadian mainstream. If this is so,
it could very well affect the Conservative Party's chances of transforming
its minority government into a majority.
Language and Cultural Insecurity
Chapter prepared for Alain-G. Gagnon (ed.), Quebec: State and Society,
3rd edition
Elisabeth Gidengil, André Blais, Richard Nadeau, Neil Nevitte
(2002)
Abstract:
We compare the attitudes of Quebec francophones with those of Anglophones
in English-speaking Canada toward three potential sources of cultural
insecurity: immigrants, Aboriginal peoples and continentalism. Our data
are taken from the Canadian Election Studies, conducted at the time of
the 1988, 1993, 1997, and 2000 federal elections and the 1992 referendum
on the Charlottetown Accord. Our analyses show that Quebec francophones
are now less sympathetic than English-speakers outside Quebec to the conditions
and aspirations of Canada’s Aboriginal peoples. Quebec francophones’
views about immigration are little different from those of the other language
group and they are actually more open to racial diversity. And Quebec
francophones are clearly more open to closer ties with the United States
than are English-speakers outside Quebec. Far from perceiving closer ties
as a threat to their language and culture, Quebec francophones seem to
see the language as a barrier to assimilation.
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Explaining the Vote for Sub-State Nationalist Parties: The SNP and the
Bloc Québécois Compared
Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Political Studies Association,
Aberdeen, April 5-7, 2002
Cameron Anderson and Elisabeth Gidengil
Abstract:
This paper undertakes a systematic comparison of voting for the Scottish
National Party (SNP) and the Bloc Québécois. The purpose
is twofold. On the one hand, to see if a comparative analysis can enhance
our understanding of why some Scots and francophone Quebeckers are drawn
to these parties, while others are not. The focus here is very much on
the inter-party dynamics of support. On the other hand, to assess the
usefulness of a variety of theoretical perspectives on the rise of sub-state
nationalism for explaining behaviour at the ballot box. Data are taken
from the 1997 Scottish Election Study and the 1997 Canadian Election Study.
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Do Trained and Untrained Coders Perceive Electoral Coverage Differently?
Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science
Association, Boston, September 3-6, 1998
Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil, Neil Nevitte, André Blais
Abstract:
Trained and untrained coders' assessments of TV coverage of parties during
the 1997 Canadian election are compared. Untrained coders' perceptions
are more positive than those of trained coders and can be colored by partisan
and personal predispositions. Despite these perceptual screens, both trained
and untrained coders' assessments exhibit similar dynamics during the
campaign.
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